Sen. Elton and Isabel
off the record
a VIP policy letter
from
Senator Kim Elton
Room 506, State Capitol, Juneau, AK 99801
* 465-4947 Phone * 465-2108 FAX

Edition # 257           Please feel free to forward          January 19, 2007

 
Let's pretend we really know
     Ms. Cleo contest for amateur soothsayers

     Insomniacs remember Ms. Cleo as the faux Jamaican seer who pitched her telephonic Tarot business on late night cable television. Neither Jamaican nor seer, she was busted for fraud by the feds in 2002 (ta ta to that tawdry telephone Tarot).
Crystal Ball     For the handful of late night television junkies who actually miss the dulcet come-on from Ms.Cleo, we offer, for the seventh year, your own opportunity to foretell the future. So, pull your #2 pencil from behind your ear, lick the tip, furrow your brow, stir up your pool of precognitive brain cells and dig into this test.
     It will do you absolutely no good to peek at my picks at the backend of this quiz. Last year I was right on only five of the 10 questions. My sense of optimism about 2006 ended up squashed flatter than W.'s hope for a Nobel Peace Prize.

1. What's the fate of Robin Taylor the former judge, former state senator and now titular head of the leaky state ferry system? Will he:

     A) Be keelhauled?
     B) Be fired?
     C) Resign? or
     D) Be reassigned to a bureaucratic closet?

2. What will the first bill passed by the 25th Alaska Legislature deal with:

     A) Ethics?
     B) Gas line?
     C) Crime and punishment?
     D) A thoughtful solution to some other serious issue? or
     E) Will it be a bill sculpted in Silly Putty?

3. Most legislators agree with Gov. Palin that we must reinstate the longevity bonus and municipal assistance programs vetoed by the last governor. At the same time, Gov. Palin wants to cut spending by $150 million. So, crunch time. Will the FY08 budgets:

     A) Drop by more than $75 million?
     B) Be reduced between $1 to $75 million?
     C) Grow between $1 and $75 million? or
     D) Grow at the nearly 15 percent per annum rate of the previous governor?

4. Last year, the legislature turned our oil and gas tax recipe inside out so we now will tax net profits instead of gross profits. Some of us voted 'nay' because we believe oil companies will use deduction "opportunities" authorized and not authorized, to reduce their tax obligations. So, come March or April, will state oil tax receipts:

     A) Match the optimistic tax predictions that were married last year to all the different price points for a barrel of oil?
     B) Come in lower than predicted because of creative tax deductions?
     C) Prove pessimists like me totally wrong by collecting more than predicted? or
     D) Lead, like past royalty oil disputes with multi-nationals, to a decades plus court fight before we really know what full tax receipts are?

5. Alaska voters in August approved a hefty head tax on cruise ship passengers and added some environmental and marketing oversight to ship activities. The cruise ship companies funded a multi-million dollar advertising campaign that said voter approval would put their golden goose on life support. Will:

     A) Cruise ship passenger numbers go up significantly in 2007?
     B) Cruise ship passenger numbers drop significantly in 2007?
     C) Cruise ship passenger numbers remain the same as they were last year? or
     D) Cruise ship passenger numbers drop, not because of the head tax, but because the major cruise lines hire ex ferry-czar Robin Taylor as the cruiselines' logistical advisor?

Tarot reading6. A voter initiative passed last year limits legislative sessions to 90 days (instead of 121 days) and the 90-day limit begins in 2008. Several legislators have suggested we train ourselves in 2007 by trying to get out of town in 90 days. How long do you think the First Session of the 25th Legislature will last?

     A) Too long?
     B) 0-90 days?
     C) 90-120 days?
     D) 121 days? or
     E) 121 days plus at least one special session?

7. When will the major oil companies commit to either building a gas line or selling the Alaska natural gas they've been warehousing to a company that is willing to build a pipeline?

     A) In 2007?
     B) In 2008?
     C) In 2009? or
     D) When hell freezes over creating new energy demand, causing profit margins to soar astronomically?

8. How long will the bi-partisan majority coalition in the Senate last?

     A) The whole year?
     B) Not as long as the Britney Spears/Kevin Federline marriage? or
     C) The poison of partisanship will wane as a result of this new approach so there will also be a bi-partisan organization in the next session of the 25th legislature?

9. Prognosticators say the state will have a significant budget surplus because of new oil taxes and high oil prices. Will the legislature:

     A) Save at least half of the surplus in savings accounts (the permanent fund or the constitutional budget reserve)?
     B) Save somewhat less than half the surplus in savings accounts? or
     C) 'Save' by "reinvesting' in red meat industrial development, dairies, Anchorage fish processing plants, grain elevators and other best-forgotten mega-projects?

10. Fulfilling a campaign promise, Gov. Palin put the state jet up for sale. eBay bidders have not ponied up their own dollars with quite the same alacrity ex-guv Frank Murkowski ponied up with taxpayer dollars. Bids for his jet have fallen about a half million dollars shy of what he (actually 'we') paid for the jet. Will:

     A) The new governor sell the jet for less than it cost and simply say "good riddance"?
     B) The governor use it for aerial hunting of wolves and/or moving inmates from prison to prison? or
     C) The governor say we're stuck with it, not want to take a bath by selling it at a loss, and use it to add efficiency to her schedule?

     Okay, finis with the soothsayer test. Here are my best guesses for the next year:

     1. Robin Taylor, a fine guitar player and man of other talents but none of them maritime, is dumped.
     2. I suspect the first bill will deal with ethics and will set in concrete, not Silly Putty, what the ethics recipes should be.
     3. I think we can train ourselves to constrain spending but predict we fall short of $75 million in savings.
     4. I think we have lengthy litigation over how multi-nationals deduct from gross profits to get to taxable net profits. The new tax bill is complex. Remember it took more than 15 years to resolve
some relatively simple sentences on how we calculate royalty oil due the state.
     5. I'm optimistic about the domestic cruise industry and think the passenger numbers will continue to grow and not fall or plateau because of the head tax.
     6. I think (hope) we'll get out of this first session a few days shy of 121-day deadline.
     7. While I hope for fast action on a gas pipeline, the issues are complex and the different economic imperatives of the multi-nationals and other interested parties  will push any contract finalization into 2008. We need to work for quick approval but. . .
     8. This senate bi-partisan working group will last the duration of the 25th Legislature.
     9. Less than half of any surplus will end up in real savings accounts--the permanent fund and/or constitutional budget reserve.
     10. The previous governor paid too much (maybe because he wasn't using his bank account) and I suspect the new governor will cut the losses from overhead and let the jet go for something less than we paid a few years ago.

Contact Us
Phone: (907) 465-4947
Fax: (907) 465-2108
Mail: Sen. Kim Elton,
State Capitol Room 506
Juneau, AK 99801
 
got a scoop?Got a scoop? Call or email your tips and suggestions to any of the email addresses below:

Capitol Undercurrents

EmbarrassedOops--Every two years it happens: some old hands in the capitol mistake new legislators for new staffers. It happens most often to the younger legislators, mostly because there are so many elected old farts (like me) that the expectation is the new members are also old farts. This year two new legislators, Reps. Lindsey Holmes (D-Anch) and Scott Kawasaki (D-Fbks) were accidentally 'carded' as new staff. Scott turned up for new legislator training and was told at the door that staff training was upstairs while Lindsey showed up to sign out keys for her new office and was asked what legislator she worked for.

Freudian slip?--An email that provided contact phone numbers for executive branch legislative liaisons began by noting the electronic memo was to identify the official departmental contacts in the "Plain Administration". I'm assuming the typo was not a Freudian slip, although many of us are hoping for 'plain' after four years of 'pain'.

Situational ethics?--The five members of the new senate minority voted against seating a majority member in a leadership position. They charged the senator was being "investigated". It was the only dustup in the transfer of power from the old legislature to the new legislature. I was bemused by the charges. First, there is no allegation, formal or informal, against the senator in question. None. Second, all five members who voted against the senator accepted that senator in the exact same leadership position when they were in the majority. They didn't say a thing then, even during the last special session. Third, four of the five legislators who voted against the senator's selection to a leadership position voted last year to levy a fine of $5,000 against any Alaskan who had the temerity to publicly talk about filing an ethics complaint against them until the ethics complaint had been adjudicated (the fifth minority member was absent for that vote last year). So, they want to ding Alaskans for going public with a true or untrue allegation against them but don't think twice about questioning the integrity of someone against whom no allegations have been made. Before this session, I served in the minority for 12 years and none of the minority caucuses I served in would have done what this senate minority did. We always tried to be the loyal opposition in a way that didn't make fangs grow. I hope we've all learned from this unfortunate event.

Do you have a dog?--During pre-session training, the Senate Rules chair told incoming legislative Shaggy dogstaffers that one of the most important roles of staff is to make members look good. If the tie is out of plumb, hair mussed instead of simply windblown, or shirt/blouse stained, the role of staff is to point it out and suggest a situation exists that needs tending. One staffer took the advice to heart. As Sen. Charlie Huggins was going into the Lite Guv's office to sign his oath of office, a legislative staffer asked the senator if he had a dog. When Charlie acknowledged that, yes, he had three dogs, the helpful staffer quickly reached up to pluck some dog hair off the senator. But it wasn't dog hair. It was chest hair peeking over the shirt collar. It was a painful experience for the senator and embarrassing for the staffer.

Show me the money--Rep. Bryce Edgmon won his primary election against the incumbent by a coin toss because, once all votes were counted and challenged, there was a tie. The Rep's five-year-old shares a Juneau kindergarten class with the young daughter of the new governor and asked why he couldn't have gone to the new guv's coin toss, too.

The kindness of strangers?--A few weeks ago the Anchorage Daily News excerpted my newsletter article on state prisons, recidivism and whether correcting was taking place in the Department of Corrections. This week I received a hand-scrawled letter from up north calling me a "moron", "stupid", a "liar", member of a "gutless, brain-dead, bigoted legislature," and a person (I'm editing slightly for publication) who would benefit from Viagra. He and I did agree, though, on alcohol taxation.

 

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