Let's pretend we really know
Ms. Cleo contest for
amateur soothsayers
Insomniacs remember Ms.
Cleo as the faux Jamaican seer who pitched her telephonic Tarot
business on late night cable television. Neither Jamaican nor seer,
she was busted for fraud by the feds in 2002 (ta ta to that tawdry
telephone Tarot).
For the
handful of late night television junkies who actually miss the
dulcet come-on from Ms.Cleo, we offer, for the seventh year, your
own opportunity to foretell the future. So, pull your #2 pencil from
behind your ear, lick the tip, furrow your brow, stir up your pool
of precognitive brain cells and dig into this test.
It will do you absolutely no good to
peek at my picks at the backend of this quiz. Last year I was right
on only five of the 10 questions. My sense of optimism about 2006
ended up squashed flatter than W.'s hope for a Nobel Peace
Prize.
1. What's the fate of Robin Taylor the
former judge, former state senator and now titular head of the leaky
state ferry system? Will he:
A) Be
keelhauled?
B) Be
fired?
C) Resign?
or
D) Be reassigned to a
bureaucratic closet?
2. What will the first bill passed by
the 25th Alaska Legislature deal with:
A) Ethics?
B) Gas
line?
C) Crime and
punishment?
D) A thoughtful
solution to some other serious issue? or
E) Will it be a bill sculpted in Silly Putty?
3. Most legislators agree with Gov.
Palin that we must reinstate the longevity bonus and municipal
assistance programs vetoed by the last governor. At the same time,
Gov. Palin wants to cut spending by $150 million. So, crunch time.
Will the FY08 budgets:
A) Drop by more than
$75 million?
B) Be reduced between
$1 to $75 million?
C) Grow between
$1 and $75 million? or
D) Grow at
the nearly 15 percent per annum rate of the previous
governor?
4. Last year, the legislature turned
our oil and gas tax recipe inside out so we now will tax net profits
instead of gross profits. Some of us voted 'nay' because we believe
oil companies will use deduction "opportunities" authorized and not
authorized, to reduce their tax obligations. So, come March or
April, will state oil tax receipts:
A) Match the
optimistic tax predictions that were married last year to all the
different price points for a barrel of
oil?
B) Come in lower than
predicted because of creative tax
deductions?
C) Prove pessimists
like me totally wrong by collecting more than predicted?
or
D) Lead, like past royalty oil
disputes with multi-nationals, to a decades plus court fight before
we really know what full tax receipts are?
5. Alaska voters in August approved a
hefty head tax on cruise ship passengers and added some
environmental and marketing oversight to ship activities. The cruise
ship companies funded a multi-million dollar advertising campaign
that said voter approval would put their golden goose on life
support. Will:
A) Cruise ship
passenger numbers go up significantly in
2007?
B) Cruise ship passenger
numbers drop significantly in 2007?
C) Cruise ship passenger numbers remain the same as they were
last year? or
D) Cruise ship
passenger numbers drop, not because of the head tax, but because the
major cruise lines hire ex ferry-czar Robin Taylor as the
cruiselines' logistical advisor?
6. A voter initiative passed last
year limits legislative sessions to 90 days (instead of 121 days)
and the 90-day limit begins in 2008. Several legislators have
suggested we train ourselves in 2007 by trying to get out of town in
90 days. How long do you think the First Session of the 25th
Legislature will last?
A) Too
long?
B) 0-90
days?
C) 90-120
days?
D) 121 days?
or
E) 121 days plus at least one
special session?
7. When will the major oil companies
commit to either building a gas line or selling the Alaska natural
gas they've been warehousing to a company that is willing to build a
pipeline?
A) In
2007?
B) In
2008?
C) In 2009?
or
D) When hell freezes over
creating new energy demand, causing profit margins to soar
astronomically?
8. How long will the bi-partisan
majority coalition in the Senate last?
A) The whole
year?
B) Not as long as the Britney
Spears/Kevin Federline marriage? or
C) The poison of partisanship will wane as a result of this new
approach so there will also be a bi-partisan organization in the
next session of the 25th legislature?
9. Prognosticators say the state will
have a significant budget surplus because of new oil taxes and high
oil prices. Will the legislature:
A) Save at least half
of the surplus in savings accounts (the permanent fund or the
constitutional budget reserve)?
B) Save somewhat less than half the surplus in savings
accounts? or
C) 'Save' by
"reinvesting' in red meat industrial development, dairies, Anchorage
fish processing plants, grain elevators and other best-forgotten
mega-projects?
10. Fulfilling a campaign promise, Gov.
Palin put the state jet up for sale. eBay bidders have not ponied up
their own dollars with quite the same alacrity ex-guv Frank
Murkowski ponied up with taxpayer dollars. Bids for his jet have
fallen about a half million dollars shy of what he (actually 'we')
paid for the jet. Will:
A) The new governor
sell the jet for less than it cost and simply say "good
riddance"?
B) The governor use it
for aerial hunting of wolves and/or moving inmates from prison to
prison? or
C) The governor say
we're stuck with it, not want to take a bath by selling it at a
loss, and use it to add efficiency to her schedule?
Okay, finis with the
soothsayer test. Here are my best guesses for the next
year:
1. Robin Taylor, a
fine guitar player and man of other talents but none of them
maritime, is dumped.
2. I suspect
the first bill will deal with ethics and will set in concrete, not
Silly Putty, what the ethics recipes should
be.
3. I think we can train
ourselves to constrain spending but predict we fall short of $75
million in savings.
4. I think we
have lengthy litigation over how multi-nationals deduct from gross
profits to get to taxable net profits. The new tax bill is complex.
Remember it took more than 15 years to resolve
some relatively simple
sentences on how we calculate royalty oil due the
state.
5. I'm optimistic about the
domestic cruise industry and think the passenger numbers will
continue to grow and not fall or plateau because of the head
tax.
6. I think (hope) we'll get
out of this first session a few days shy of 121-day
deadline.
7. While I hope for fast
action on a gas pipeline, the issues are complex and the different
economic imperatives of the multi-nationals and other interested
parties will push any contract finalization into 2008. We need
to work for quick approval but. . .
8. This senate bi-partisan working group will last the duration
of the 25th Legislature.
9. Less
than half of any surplus will end up in real savings accounts--the
permanent fund and/or constitutional budget
reserve.
10. The previous governor
paid too much (maybe because he wasn't using his bank account) and I
suspect the new governor will cut the losses from overhead and let
the jet go for something less than we paid a few years
ago.